Variable-priced paper is outstanding while the listing is under stress — the structure where dilution can accelerate. Watch the share count each quarter.
Radar 94 (high attention) · dilution pressure high · listing risk high · governance risk elevated · runway 0.3 mo · strongest signal: Equity line (Aug 11, 2026)
What would confirm: Rising share count in 10-Q cover vs prior quarter; repeated 424B3 resales; another reverse split proposal.
What would prove it wrong: Notes repaid in cash / equity line terminated (8-K 1.02); share count flat quarter over quarter.
Direction is stated for existing shareholders (▼ more shares / survival or listing risk; ▲ insiders or holders buying). It is a characterization of the filings, not a forecast or a recommendation.
Independent filings stitched into a thesis, each with what would confirm and what would prove it wrong.
Variable-priced paper is outstanding while the listing is under stress — the structure where dilution can accelerate. Watch the share count each quarter. Discount-priced or variable-priced securities are outstanding while the company is managing its listing with reverse splits/notices. Each conversion lowers the price, which lowers the next conversion price.
A fresh shelf is on file with under a year of cash — the ingredients of an offering before the next 10-K. First shelf registration in 12 months filed with ~0.3 months of runway. Companies rarely file a shelf they do not intend to use.
No note yet. Notes are written each morning for the top-ranked setups; Pro subscribers get them in full the same day.
Runway = liquidity ÷ monthly operating burn at the latest reported period · balance sheet 138 days old. A financing after the balance-sheet date is the main reason a figure can be stale — check the timeline below for offerings since then.
Last 30 days of filing signals plus current balance-sheet flags, newest first. ▼ pressure · ▲ support · hover a score for its components; every row links to the filing.
| Date | Signal | Evidence | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | ▼ Late filing (NT) | NT 10-Q filed 2026-08-14 filing | 47 |
| Aug 11, 2026 | ▼ Equity line | “equity line” language in 8-K (EX-10.1) filed 2026-08-11 filing | 51 |
| Aug 11, 2026 | ▼ Convertible note | “convertible note” language in 8-K (EX-10.1) filed 2026-08-11 filing | 45 |
| Aug 11, 2026 | ▼ ATM program | “atm” language in 8-K (8-K) filed 2026-08-11 filing | 38 |
| Aug 11, 2026 | ▼ PIPE | “pipe” language in 8-K (8-K) filed 2026-08-11 filing | 33 |
| Aug 11, 2026 | ▼ Unregistered sale | 8-K Item 3.02 filed 2026-08-11 (accepted 17:25 ET) filing | 32 |
| Aug 11, 2026 | ▼ Reverse split | “reverse split” language in 8-K (EX-10.2) filed 2026-08-11 filing | 32 |
| Aug 11, 2026 | ▼ Delisting language | “delisting notice” language in 8-K (EX-10.1) filed 2026-08-11 filing | 32 |
| Aug 11, 2026 | ▼ New debt obligation | 8-K Item 2.03 filed 2026-08-11 (accepted 17:25 ET) filing | 27 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | ▼ Offering (424B) | 424B3 prospectus supplement 2026-08-07; 2 prior 424B filings in 12m filing | 27 |
| Aug 6, 2026 | ▼ Shelf effective | EFFECT notice 2026-08-06 filing | 21 |
| Jul 28, 2026 | ▼ Equity line | “equity line” language in 8-K (EX-10.5) filed 2026-07-28 filing | 51 |
| Jul 28, 2026 | ▼ Convertible note | “convertible note” language in 8-K (EX-10.1) filed 2026-07-28 filing | 45 |
| Jul 28, 2026 | ▼ Equity line | “equity line” language in 8-K (8-K) filed 2026-07-28 filing | 45 |
| Jul 28, 2026 | ▼ ATM program | “atm” language in 8-K (EX-10.6) filed 2026-07-28 filing | 44 |
| Jul 28, 2026 | ▼ Convertible note | “convertible note” language in 8-K (8-K) filed 2026-07-28 filing | 39 |
| Jul 28, 2026 | ▼ Shelf filed | S-1 filed 2026-07-28 filing | 39 |
| Jul 28, 2026 | ▼ ATM program | “atm” language in 8-K (8-K) filed 2026-07-28 filing | 38 |
| Jul 28, 2026 | ▼ PIPE | “pipe” language in 8-K (EX-10.1) filed 2026-07-28 filing | 38 |
| Jul 28, 2026 | ▼ Unregistered sale | 8-K Item 3.02 filed 2026-07-28 (accepted 18:30 ET) filing | 37 |
| Jul 28, 2026 | ▼ Unregistered sale | 8-K Item 3.02 filed 2026-07-28 (accepted 18:27 ET) filing | 37 |
| Jul 28, 2026 | ▼ Reverse split | “reverse split” language in 8-K (EX-10.2) filed 2026-07-28 filing | 37 |
| Jul 28, 2026 | ▼ Material agreement terminated | 8-K Item 1.02 filed 2026-07-28 (accepted 18:27 ET) filing | 34 |
| Jul 28, 2026 | ▼ PIPE | “pipe” language in 8-K (8-K) filed 2026-07-28 filing | 33 |
| Jul 28, 2026 | ▼ Reverse split | “reverse split” language in 8-K (EX-10.1) filed 2026-07-28 filing | 32 |
| Jul 28, 2026 | ▼ Delisting language | “delisting notice” language in 8-K (EX-10.1) filed 2026-07-28 filing | 32 |
| Jul 28, 2026 | ▼ Delisting language | “delisting notice” language in 8-K (EX-10.1) filed 2026-07-28 filing | 32 |
| Jul 28, 2026 | ▼ New debt obligation | 8-K Item 2.03 filed 2026-07-28 (accepted 18:27 ET) filing | 29 |
| Mar 31, 2026 | ▼ Runway < 6 months | ~0.3 months runway: liquidity $27,000 as of 2026-03-31, burn $1,061,000/yr (latest fiscal-year operating cash flow (quarter too short to annualize) [companyfacts]) filing | 45 |
| Mar 31, 2026 | ▼ Near $5M MVLS floor | Public float $2,960,372 (as of 2025-06-30) vs $5M Nasdaq MVLS floor; needs price x shares confirmation filing | 29 |
| Mar 31, 2026 | ▼ Cash < current liabilities | Liquidity $27,000 vs current liabilities $9,057,000 filing | 21 |
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